Friday, September 19, 2008

DRUG TRAFFICKING AS A GLOBAL THREAT : CASE STUDY OF AFGHANISTAN

drug trafficking routes
field of opium in Myanmar



DRUG TRAFFICKING: A GLOBAL THREAT

CASE STUDY: AFGHANISTAN

Introduction

The International scene faces increasing trends in drug problems from production, trafficking and drug abuse. This paper examines the roles of the transnational organized crime in perpetuating the problems and the relationship of drug problem to globalization.

Transnational Organized Crime (TOC)

United Nations Convention on Transnational Organized Crime (2000) :

“Organized criminal group” shall mean a structured group of three or more persons, existing for a period of time and acting in concert with the aim of committing one or more serious crimes or offences established in accordance with this Convention, in order to obtain, directly or indirectly, a financial or other material benefit.

“Serious crime” shall mean conduct constituting an offense punishable by a maximum deprivation of liberty of at least four years or a more serious penalty.

“Structured group” shall means a group that is not randomly formed for the immediate commission of an offence and does not need to have formally defined roles for it members, continuity of its membership or a developed structure…. (A)n offence is transnational in nature if: (a) It is committed in more than one state; (b) It is committed in one state but a substantial part of its preparation, planning, direction or control takes place in another state; (c) It is committed in one state but involves an organized criminal group that engages in criminal activities in more than one state; or (d) It is committed in one state but has substantial effects in another state.

US Definition : President Johnson’s Crime Commission (1967)

: ‘Organized crime is a society that seeks to operate outside the control of the American people and their governments. It involves thousands of criminals, working within structures as complex as those of any large cooperation, subject to laws more rigidly enforced then those of legitimate governments. Its actions are not impulsive but rather the result of intricate conspiracies carried on over many years and aimed at gaining control over whole fields of activity in order to amass huge profits…’(President’s Commission on Law Enforcement and the Administration of Justice, 1967).

Europe’s Definition:

The Commission-Europol (2001) joint report reveals that ‘in order to speak about organized crime’ at least 6 out set of 11 characteristics need to be present including character 1, 3, 5 and 11. The characters are :1) Collaboration of more than two people; 2) Each with own appointed tasks; 3) For a prolonged or indefinite period of time; 4) Using some form of discipline or control; 5) Suspected of the commission of serious criminal offences; 6) Operating an at international level; 7) Using violence or other means suitable for intimidation; 8) Using commercial or businesslike structures; 9) Engaged in money laundering; 10) Exerting influence on politics, the media, public administration, judicial authorities or the economy;11)Determined by the pursuit of profit and/or power (Edwards & Gill 2003:34).

TOC activities

: narcotics trafficking, peoples trafficking, arms trafficking (Cusimano)

: money laundering, toxic waste, drug trafficking, migrant trafficking

(Emilio C. Viano)

Drug Trafficking

Drug trafficking is a “transborder organized crime that produces, transports, imports, manufactures illicit drugs, using any transport for illicit traffic, as well as money laundering from illicit drugs trading” (Drug Trafficking Act 1994 for England & Wales)

Globalization

Globalization is a key actor in the rise of transnational organized crime. The categories of state, economics and institutional structures are useful for capturing the majority of analysis on TOC in the global context. Globalization benefits the capabilities, resources, and strategies that are available to TOC.

State

i. “globalization” is transforming the logic of sovereignty without eliminating the

role of the state” (Saskia Sassen, James Mittelman, James Rosenue)

  1. combined with weak state scenarios, “negative sovereignty” (Robert Jackson)

and “retreat of the state” (Susan Strange), provide theoretical backbone for

analyzing TOC and corruption in the global context.

iii. weakening of state structures, either caused or enhanced through globalization

processes, has created spaces that allowed TOC to flourish. “ interplay of

weakened states, civil society, and TOC, viewing criminal groups as taking

advantage of new technologies and global opportunities to amplify the

weakening of states” (Louise Shelly). “demise of states is a necessary

part of the globalization process because it erodes the bonds of trust

between state and citizenry and provides TOC with the opportunity to

play surrogate for state” (Nikos Passas).

Economy

i. how the “illicit global economy” affects the state and the licit economy,

eg: illicit Colombian economy distorts the licit economy

ii. economic markets shape TOC, taking organizational form based on the

economic context

iii. transnational business strategies of the illicit actors increasingly mirror

those in the licit economy, eg: specialists such as lawyers, accountants,

and transportation experts now work for organized crime they do for the

legitimate economy.

Another sector of globalization – give the benefit to the TOC

: technological and scientific innovations, the speed and ease of communications, instant financial transactions in electronic form, and databanks with massive amounts of information are tightening global interdependence and shortening the time-span of international operations.

: these developments greatly facilitate destabilizing and criminal activities, boost their effectiveness, and make it easier for them to proceed undetected.

: as a result, criminal groups can easily branch out into new forms of criminal, economic, and political activities at the regional, national, and global levels (Viono 1999: xi)

Relations between TOC and globalization

: David Nelken - Internationalisation of organized crime has been ‘in response to technological advancements in communications and transportation; to market adaptations resulting from the internationalisation of investment capital, financial services and banking; to the internationalisation of manufacturing and increased segmentation and fragmentation of production; and, to the increased emphasis on unrestricted trade across borders.’ (Einstein & Amir : 1999: 469).

ARGUMENT: DRUG TRAFFICKING EFFECT THE GLOBAL

SECURITY BECAUSE OF THE ADVANTAGES

FROM THE GLOBALIZATION

Part I – Legal Framework

United Nation :

i. 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs

ii. 1971 Convention on Psychotropic Substances

iii. 1988 Convention against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic

Substances

– called on party states to take specific law enforcement measures to improve

their ability to identify, arrest, prosecute, and convict those who traffic in

drugs across national boundaries.

- such measures include the establishment of drug-related criminal offences

and sanctions under domestic law, making such offences the basis for

international extradition between party states, and providing fro mutual

legal assistances in the investigation and prosecution of covered offences,

as well as the seizure and confiscation of proceeds from and

instrumentalities used in illicit trafficking activities (Edwards & Gill 2003:19)

iv. 1992 – UN noted that ‘the illegal use of drugs has grown at an alarming rate

over the past twenty years, crossing all social, economic, political and

national boundaries’.

Nov 1994 – UN World Ministerial Conference on Organized Transnational Crime

– recognised the growing threat of organized crime with its ‘ highly destabilizing

and corrupting influence of fundamental social, economic and political

institutions’.

UNs Secretary-General Boutros Boutros Ghali : ‘Organized crime has … become a world phenomenon. In Europe, in Asia, in Africa and in America, the forces of darkness are at work and no society is spared…(T)raditional crime organizations have, in a very short time, succeeded in adapting to the new international context to become veritable crime multinationals. Thus, illegality is gaining inexorably. It is corrupting entire sectors on international activity…the danger is all the more pernicious because organized crime does not always confront the state directly. It becomes enmeshed in the institutional machinery. It infiltrates the State apparatus, so as to gain the indirect complicity of government officials…’ (Ibid:21).

- Dec 2000 – 100 countries signed the Convention against Transnational Organized Crime – the ‘follow on’ of the previous UN conventions against TOC

v. Nov 1994 – UN World Ministerial Conference on Organized Transnational Crime

– recognised the growing threat of organized crime with its ‘ highly

destabilizing and corrupting influence of fundamental social, economic

and political institutions’.

- UNs Secretary-General Boutros Boutros Ghali : ‘Organized crime has …

become a world phenomenon. In Europe, in Asia, in Africa and in

America, the forces of darkness are at work and no society is

spared…(T)raditional crime organizations have, in a very short time,

succeeded in adapting to the new international context to become

veritable crime multinationals. Thus, illegality is gaining inexorably. It is

corrupting entire sectors on international activity…the danger is all the

more pernicious because organized crime does not always confront the

state directly. It becomes enmeshed in the institutional machinery. It

infiltrates the State apparatus, so as to gain the indirect complicity of

government officials…’ (Ibid:21).

Dec 2000 – 100 countries signed the Convention against Transnational Organized

Crime – the ‘follow on’ of the previous UN conventions against TOC

Violation of National Laws

1. United States of America

1952 - The ‘Mafia’ dominated most organized crime in America – Mafia become

coherent and centralized international conspiracy of evil – Mafia also

dominated gambling and drug trafficking in the US = Mafia become a

threat to America’s political, economic, and legal systems, and needed to

be countered by any means necessary (Edwards & Gill 2003: 15).

1960 - President Kennedy: ‘if we do not on national scale of attack organized

crime criminals with weapons and techniques as effective as their own,

they will destroy us’

1969 – President Nixon – warned that Mafia’s influence had ‘deeply penetrated

broad segments of American life’ and announced a series of measures

designed ‘to relentlessly pursue the criminal syndicate’

1970 – Congress supported this line and passed the Organized Crime Control Act.

1983 – Reagan’s Presidential Commission on Organized Crime : emphasized on the

successes against ‘traditional organized crime’ and the need to ‘stay in front’ of

the emerging ‘cartels’. Drug trafficking was identified as the most profitable

organized crime activity and most needed addressing. Mafia mythology was

adapted to a new age, challenged by several crime ‘cartels,’ ‘emerging’

amongst Asian, Latin American and other groups.

- The Commission recommended the “Foreign Assistance’ : ‘Because drug

trafficking and productions are threats to such magnitude to the stability of

existing democracies, a primary goal of the US and its allies should be to

enhance the security of drug producing and transshipment regions.’ – the

implications on domestic and foreign policy responses to organized crime were

clear: a harder line on all fronts at home combined with increasing efforts to

spread the American stand on drug control abroad.

- The recommendations on “Foreign Assistance” has called the ‘

“Americanization” of International Law Enforcement’ – called for international

community’s response to drugs – build the framework of UN Conventions.

Sept 1994 – Washington DC Conference : summarized that ‘the dimensions of global

organized crime present a greater international security challenge than

anything Western democracies had to cope with during the Cold War.

Worldwide alliances are being forged in every criminal field from money

laundering and currency counterfeiting to trafficking in drugs and nuclear

materials. Global organized crime is the world’s fastest growing business,

with profits estimated at $1 trillion.

2. Europe’s

1980s the notion of threat from organized crime was almost exclusively viewed

as synonymous with an external threat from drug cartels – the period

when the impact of globalization was first seriously understood as a

phenomenon that brought different policy challenges.

1985 the Single Act revising the Treaty of Rome – setting a timetable for the

prospective abolition of internal border controls on January 1993 –

following with the White Paper on the completion of the Single Market (on

external borders), Schengen Information System and Supplement d’

Information Requis a l’entrĂ©e Nationale (registration and surveillance

databases)

1992 - The Treaty on European Union (TEU) – covered police co-operation ‘for the

purposes of preventing and combating terrorism, unlawful drug trafficking

and other serious forms of international crime’ – followed with 1993

Ministerial Agreement to set up the Europol Drugs Unit (EDU)

1994 - Joint Action to extend the EDU task – adding illicit trafficking in radioactive

and nuclear substances, crimes involving clandestine immigration networks

and illicit vehicle trafficking.

1996 - Dublin European Council established a ‘High Level Group on Organized

Crime’

1997 - the Group submitted an ‘Action Plan to combat organized crime’, contained

15 ‘political guidelines’ and 30 specific recommendations of work plan

ranging from prevention, legal instruments for combating organized crime,

practical co-operation between police, judicial authorities and customs, the

scope of Europol’s remit and combating of money laundering and

confiscation of the profits of crime.

2001 – The Commission-Europol joint report reveals that ‘in order to speak about

organized crime’ at least 6 out set of 11 characteristics need to be present

including character 1, 3, 5 and 11. The characters are :1) Collaboration of

more than two people; 2) Each with own appointed tasks; 3) For a

prolonged or indefinite period of time; 4) Using some form of discipline or

control; 5) Suspected of the commission of serious criminal offences; 6)

Operating an at international level; 7) Using violence or other means

suitable for intimidation; 8) Using commercial or businesslike structures; 9)

Engaged in money laundering; 10) Exerting influence on politics, the

media, public administration, judicial authorities or the economy;

11)Determined by the pursuit of profit and/or power (Edwards & Gill

2003:34).

Part II – Global Trends in illicit drugs production, trafficking and consumption (World Drug Report. 1997)

Global Background

* The Illicit drug phenomenon cannot be viewed outside the context of contemporary economic, social, and political developments.

- Changes in the world political economy and advances in technology over the past four decades have had a significant impact on the scope and nature of the illicit drug problem. - It is now recognized that rapid growth in the trade of goods and services has resulted in a more interdependent world.

- Yet despite the positive implications which the increase in world trade has for the prosperity and efficiency, sustained growth in international trade can complicate efforts to control the illicit drug problem.

* Criminal organizations involved in illicit drugs respond to opportunities created

by a globalizing market economy.

- The past two decades has seen great strides in banking deregulation and the

privatization of state owned business; however, much of this distancing of

official intervention from the day to day workings of the economy has taken

place in countries where the regulatory environment is still in an embryonic

state.

- The inadequacy of regulations leaves these economic systems vulnerable to

criminal exploitation.

* Political events, in domestic instability and conflict, are also an important

factor.

- The collapse of state structures in many countries has left an institutional

vacuum which has been exploited by drug trafficking organizations.

- The rise in drug abuse in such countries has proven extremely difficult to

contained because of fragmented and unprepared medical and health

authorities.

- In situations of armed conflict, illicit drug revenues – or the drugs

themselves – are regularly exchanged for arms.

* The scope for profit-making in the illicit drug trade is rapidly expanding.

- The relationship between illicit drugs and economic development, is far more

important than generally recognized: while it is widely accepted that illicit

cultivation occurs in many developing countries, the effects of the illegal trade on

local communities is all too assumed to be cost-free.

- In fact the spillover of production into abuse has a negative impact on the local

workforce.

- Illicit sector income is evenly distributed; at the lower level of the production chain

it barely exceeds income is generated further downstream, ending up in the hands

of the traffickers who control exports to, and distribution in, the country of

consumption.

II. I – Illicit Drug Production

* The countries with the largest cultivation areas relative to arable land are

depicted in Fig.1. In addition to the cultivation of cannabis, the plants used in the

illicit production of cocaine and heroin are coca leaf and opium poppy.

* Fig.2. shows global trends in the production of opium poppy and coca leaf. It can

be seen the production of coca leaf has more than doubled and that opium

poppy has more than tripled since 1985.

(Fig .1 and Fig. 2 cannot be published due to technical problems, im sorry L )

- Global hectarage devoted to illicit opium poppy cultivation expanded to about

280,000 hectares by 1996. Almost 90% of the world’s illicitly produced opiates

originate in the two main production areas – the Golden Crescent (Afghanistan, Iran,

Pakistan) and the Golden Triangle (Loas, Myanmar, Thailand).

- Afghanistan and Myanmar are the two main countries of illicit opium poppy

cultivation; to a much lesser extent illicit cultivation takes place in Columbia, Loas,

Vietnam, Pakistan, Mexico, India, Thailand, China, and the Middle East.

- Emerging and potentially important producers include the countries of Central Asia.

* The illicit production of opium gum was thought to have reached 5,000 tonnes in

1996.

- about a third of the total is believed to be consumed as opium.

- the remainder is converted into heroin in illicit laboratories. More than 300 tonnes of

heroin are thought to have been produced annually in the 1990’s, mostly for export.

* Most of the world’s coca is grown in the Andean countries – Peru, Colombia, and

Bolivia, which together account for more than 98% of world cocaine supplies.

- Half the global cultivation of 220,000 (1996) hectares takes place in Peru, while

Bolivia and Columbia each account for nearly one quarter of the total.

- Estimates of the global illicit production of coca leaves suggest a doubling of

production over the 1985 to 1994 period, although production seems to be down

from the 1991/1992 peak level.

- About 1,000 tonnes of cocaine could have been manufactured from the 300,000

tonnes of coca leaf produced in 1996.

* Fig. 3 – 5 show regional trends in cultivation and trafficking between 1985 and 1995.

- The Maps detail the patterns of cultivation in South West Asia, Southeast Asia, and

Latin America. It is clear that during the past decade, illicit drug production and

trafficking have spread to new geographical areas.

- The trends is likely to continue, with illicit drug production expanding in places

where law enforcement poses the least threat.

II. II : Drug Seizures

* Seizures of drugs by law enforcement agencies are one of the main indicators used

to assess the level of illicit drug trafficking.

- Data on seizures should be interpreted with caution, since the evidence they provide

is only an indirect measure of drug trafficking. However, once such data are

corroborated by cultivation, price, and demand estimates, they can provide

important insight into the actual trends in illicit drug production and trafficking.

* Throughout the past two decades, seizures of most major drugs have risen (See

Fig.7)

- In terms of volume, the most heavily trafficked drug in the world is cannabis.

- In 1995, 3,000 tonnes of herbal cannabis and 1,000 tonnes of cannabis resin were

seized globally.

- Worldwide cocaine seizures amounted to 251 tonnes in the same year. Global heroin

and morphine seizures amounted to 31 tonnes and 13 tonnes respectively in 1995.

- The figures also show the share of each region as a proportion of global drug

seizures.

* Worldwide trafficking patterns very widely according to the type of drug. Fig.8 – 11 illustrate the geographic reach of illicit drug trafficking for various drugs. What these figures do not capture is the relationship between the different regions of the global drug trafficking network. In this regard, Fig. 12- 13 provides useful insight. Some trafficking routes are complex, involving many different transit countries, forms of transport and concealment.

* The complexity of the routes reflects not only climatic constraints but also criminal efforts to evade law enforcement authorities. Heroin is manufactured primarily in the opium-producing regions before export to other continents.

- Within the Golden Crescent and Golden Triangle, opium is trafficked to clandestine

manufacturing sites located where the risks of detection are perceived to be low.

This reduces the risks and costs of trafficking, since heroin is of higher value per unit

weight than opium.

- Using various routes which traverse Europe and Asia, and the Atlantic and Pacific

Oceans, criminal groups operating in South-West Asia supply the bulk of the

European heroin market.

- While those operating out of Southeast Asia supply the market in North America.

- Global seizures of opium are believed to account for a mere 10 - 15% of the total

destined for the production of heroin.

* The growth in international trade and transportation have also made the interdiction

of illicit drugs difficult.

- Free trade agreements in different parts of the world, designed to increase trade and

reduce border regulation, are also likely to have inadvertently provided opportunities

for illicit drug trafficking. - As it is not desirable to turn back the tide of free trade, it

will be increasingly important to increase efforts to reconcile two seemingly

contradictory aims, namely, trade liberalization and the effective control of illicit drug

traffic.

- Only the ATS (amphetamine-type stimulants) seem to fall outside this clash, for the

global availability of the necessary precursors allows production and consumption to

take place in close proximity to one another, pre-empting the need for long

trafficking distances.

II.III – Demand for Illicit Drugs

* In recent years, illicit drug consumption has increased throughout the world. Various indicators – emergency room visits, substance abuse related mortality cases, arrests of drug abusers, number of countries reporting rising consumption levels – make clear that consumption has become a truly global phenomenon.

- Of the plant-based drugs, the illicit consumption of cannabis products – marijuana

and hashish – is most widespread.

- Less prevalent, but with far more serious health-related effects, is the abuse of

heroin and cocaine.

- The most rapid rise in abuse in recent years has been of synthetic drugs,

particularly of ATS (amphetamine-type stimulants).

* It should be emphasized that authorities in many countries still have only a vogue conception of the extent of local drug abuse.

- AS research in several countries has shown, there are significant differences between ‘life-time’, ‘annual’ and ‘daily’ abuse prevalence rates, as well as among the prevalence rates of the various socio-economic sub-groups and the general population.

- UNDCP estimates, the annual global prevalence rate of illicit drug consumption is likely to be in the ranger of 3.3% to 4.1% of the total population.

- The most widely abused drug is cannabis, which is consume by about 2.5% of the world population. This equals about 140 million people worldwide (based on information provided by UNDCP, WHO, the US Drug Enforcement Agency and US Department of State).

* From a health perspective, the most serious drug of abuse is heroin.

- In most countries, heroin is the leading drug responsible for substance abuse.

- In terms of geographical spread, heroin is also among the leading substances,

with abuse of heroin found in almost all countries.

- Statistics suggest that about 8 million people – or 0.14% of the global

population – take this substance (‘annual prevalence’).

- Abuse of heroin in North, Central and South America as well as in Africa seems

to be below average, whereas heroin abuse in Asia, Europe and Oceania is

above the global average.

- The abuse of cocaine is more widespread in terms of the total number of

consumers.

- Statistics suggest that at least 13 million people (0.23% of the global

population) abuse cocaine (annual prevalence).

- Cocaine abuse is still strongly concentrated in the North America.

- In recent years, the most pronounced increase in drug abuse has been reported

for synthetic drugs (includes the abuse of ATS). Some 30 million people (0.5%

of global population) consume ATS worldwide.

- Methamphetamine – highly abused in North America, followed by Far-East and

Southeast Asia.

PART III: STUDY CASE : AFGHANISTAN

( UN Office on Drugs & Crime. 2003)

III.I – Afghanistan’s illicit opium economy: size and shape

Production and Trafficking

Afghanistan’s opium production (3400 tons in 2002) increased more than

15-fold since 1979;

From 1996 to 1999, under the Taliban, production doubled and peaked

at over 4600 tons;

In 2002, opium was cultivated by several ethnic groups in the south

(Helmand). East (Nangarhar) and north (Badakshan);

Cross-border ethnic and tribal links facilitate trafficking by several ethnic

groups;

Over three-quarters of the heroin sold in Europe, and virtually all of it in

Russia, are originates in Afghanistan.

Trade and Incomes

The opium trade was de-facto legal in Afghanistan before and throughout the

Taliban period;

In January 2002, the Karzai Administration banned it;

Opium market in southern Afghanistan were fragmented and competitive, while in

the east and north they were oligopolistic (the power is on other hand). Price

levels and structures varied accordingly, but they are now coverging;

Opium farmgate prices increased almost 10-fold ($300 per kg) at harvest time in

2001 compared to a year earlier as a consequence of the Taliban opium ban, and

some 20-fold ($700 kg) prior to September 11. Despite a good harvest in 2002 –

opium prices still amounted to around $350 at harvest time in 2002, and were

about $540 at the end of the year;

Over the 1994-2000 period, gross income from opium was about $150

million/year ($750/family). In 2001, following the Taliban ban, prices increased

10-fold. In 2002, gross income rose to $1.2 billion ($6,500/family). Part of the

income is shared with traders and/or taxed by warlords;

Income from opium and heroin trafficking into neighbouring countries amounted

to at least $720 million in 2000, It may have doubled in 2002;

These are extraordinary revenues in a country where the average wage does not

exceeded $2 per day.

Drug Abuse

· Drug abuse in Afghanistan has increased strongly in the last few years, due to prolonged human deprivation and suffering, the breakdown of traditional social controls, the return of refugees who developed a drug problem in refugee camps, and the almost unlimited availability of opiates within Afghanistan;

* The war wounded also become addicted as consequence of primitive first aid and large-scale use of opium, morphine, and heroin as painkillers;

Drug abuse in Afghanistan is still low compared to neighbouring countries (Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asia).

III.II – Origins

Historical roots of the opium economy

The opium economy developed in Afghanistan because of :

* lack of effective government administration until the recent past;

* degradation of agriculture and most economic infrastructure due to

twenty years of war;

* a war economy and related black marketeering.

Through the 1980s and 1990s several competing factions financed their war efforts with opium revenue. Since most of the opium producing provinces came under Taliban control after 1996, the Taliban reaped the largest gains from the opium economy.

The Taliban cultivation ban increased prices in 2001 and revalued stocks by a factor of 10, more liquidity in the hands of traders thus created further incentives for the opium economy.

Poverty, devastation and farmers’ motivation

Afghan farmers grew opium poppy because:

*The opium trade was de-facto legal until President Karzai’s ban in January 2002;

*Opium poppy is a profitable crop, produced with cheap labor (women, children and refugees);

*Inputs of opium poppy are abundant, including suitable land, water and know-how from itinerant (mobile) labor;

*Opium became a form of saving, a source of liquidity and a collateral for credit;

*Opium is insurance against poverty and hunger: farmers sell future crops to narco-usurers (money lenders) for subsistence;

*Opium requires no marketing or storage, as it can be sold easily to spot markets

Bazaars, finance and narco-usures (money lenders)

Opium has become an “economic narcotic” for whole segments of Afghan society:

* as a commodity, it is an income generator;

* as a source of liquidity, it is means of exchange;

* as a payment mechanism, it is a way to store value and fund transactions.

* Opium traders frequently act as narco-usurers (money lenders) because:

* opium serves as means of salaam (informal advance payments);

* the have capital to assist farmers. They regenerate cash-flows via rapid

turnover trade (low profit); or via shipments to border regions (medium

profit); or by smuggling opiates across borders (high profit). Risks

very accordingly.

Greed (greediness), warlods and opium trafficking

Opium is an ideal commodity for marketing, trade and speculation:

* it is compact to transport and durable to store, with high intrinsic value

($350- 400/kg). At present, only a few licit agricultural commodities,

such as truffles type of mushroom) ($800/kg) are more expensive on

international markets;

* given high risk of interdiction at the borders with neighbouring

countries, high profits (five-fold increase of price) are generated by

trafficking;

* it is a commodity suitable for trafficking, especially in the provinces

controlled by warlords who levy a tax in exchange for protection.

In some regions, traffickers gain respect from the local community when

they recycle part of their income for the benefit of poor villages.

There is a clears nexus between drug trafficking and warlordism

The re-emergence of drug cultivation and the recrudescence (overturn) of

violence in certain provinces are well-known phenomena.

III.III- Regional Consequences

Devastation in neighbouring countries

Trafficking

*More than 60% of global opiate seizures take place in the few countries neighbouring Afghanistan;

*Most seizures are made by Iran, followed by Pakistan and Tajikistan.

Mega-incomes and economic vulnerably

*Opiate trafficking profits in the countries neighbouring Afghanistan amount to some $4 billion in 2002, equivalent to 2% of GDP;

*Most profits are made in Central Asia, followed by Iran and Pakistan;

*Economic growth in countries neighbouring Afghanistan was below the global average.

Abuse

*Countries neighbouring Afghanistan suffer from rising levels of abuse;

*The strongest rise, in recent years, was in the countries of Central Asia, which were also affected by the strongest increases in drug trafficking.

HIV/AIDS

*HIV/ AIDS is increasing in all countries neighbouring Afghanistan, notably in the countries of Central Asia;

*Central Asia has one of the highest rates of IDU related HIV/AIDS infections in the world.

The Way Forward

The problems can be solved by:

*alternate crops, seeds, fertilizers and equipment for opium farmers;

*alternative sources of income for land-less labour and returning refugees

*jobs for women and schooling fro children, especially girls;

*macro-economic structures within which commodity markets (including presently unregulated bazaars) can grow free from the perverse incentives provided by opium and other forms of contraband;

*informal financial structures able to extend harvest-based collateralized loans (even micro-credits) to farmers and returning refugees, so as to bankrupt the narco-usurers at their game;

*effective law enforcement against opium markets within the country to combat the perverse economic and political impact of warlordism, and against the international trafficking of opiates.

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